Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-17 2.380319 2.526314 2.686050 2.875747 3.097615 3.352582 3.673552
2025-08-24 2.215461 2.394205 2.598229 2.853016 3.170045 3.562969 4.108222
2025-08-31 2.105334 2.302505 2.534080 2.833704 3.224080 3.737870 4.513946
2025-09-07 2.039437 2.252927 2.509860 2.852863 3.319131 3.969919 5.045787
2025-09-14 1.933301 2.145597 2.404014 2.754194 3.240273 3.939499 5.154289
2025-09-21 1.877348 2.095844 2.365727 2.738663 3.271021 4.069527 5.561797
2025-09-28 1.813567 2.032373 2.305220 2.687152 3.242758 4.100850 5.793764
2025-10-05 1.799265 2.030046 2.322767 2.742282 3.374535 4.408243 6.694730
2025-10-12 1.796237 2.041265 2.357792 2.823331 3.553843 4.833462 8.146619
2025-10-19 1.760209 2.007499 2.329894 2.810393 3.580586 4.982260 8.987734
2025-10-26 1.733097 1.984152 2.314695 2.814502 3.634812 5.195090 10.257643
2025-11-02 1.686762 1.933573 2.259606 2.755008 3.574726 5.158408 10.554470
2025-11-09 1.653822 1.901081 2.230065 2.735347 3.586652 5.290852 11.843450
2025-11-16 1.624086 1.871747 2.203506 2.718262 3.600777 5.431183 13.500155
2025-11-23 1.597119 1.845187 2.179630 2.703640 3.617397 5.581440 15.735768
2025-11-30 1.582469 1.834685 2.177874 2.723272 3.698575 5.913919 21.563984
2025-12-07 1.536691 1.780378 2.111355 2.635862 3.569074 5.664932 19.432971
2025-12-14 1.515198 1.758933 2.091702 2.623311 3.582961 5.809975 24.172683
2025-12-21 1.485037 1.724846 2.052719 2.577665 3.529099 5.757574 25.570217
2025-12-28 1.484271 1.731228 2.072670 2.629040 3.670691 6.308348 81.016677
2026-01-04 1.489630 1.746139 2.105541 2.703800 3.870456 7.157539 NaN
2026-01-11 1.471871 1.728070 2.088580 2.692875 3.887483 7.384732 NaN
2026-01-18 1.458879 1.716398 2.080816 2.697329 3.938688 7.774046 NaN